Tuesday 8 January 2013

Long term climate change?

The Met office revealed this week that 2012 was the wettest year on record for England and the second wettest year on record for the UK. The question is whether this is a “one off” or whether it is part of a trend? Unfortunately there are indications that it may be part of a trend in that 4 out of the five wettest years on record have been since the year 2000 and statistics show that the frequency of extreme rainfall events is also increasing.

Many climate scientists will point to this as evidence that we are starting to experience the effects of man made climate change. You will note “global warming” has been dropped from the vocabulary in favour of “climate change” in that although the theory is that the earth will get warmer, the impact this will have on the weather in different parts of the world is far from predictable. Thus instead of the olive groves many had been hoping for in the UK as the globe became warmer, we may find ourselves exposed to more extreme and less predictable weather events.

Some of course are still sceptical as to whether we are experiencing man made climate change but whether or not that is the case does not really matter in the short term for those who have been affected by drought or floods in recent years.

In this context farmers have suffered significant losses across the board in 2012. Indeed the NFU have estimated UK farmers and growers have suffered losses of approximately £1.3bn as a consequence of the extreme weather last year. Here in Somerset the evidence of such losses is all around us – flooding on the levels on and off since April, un-harvested maize crops still in the fields and poor quality, low yielding of arable and forage crops.

These are all the things climate scientists have warned us will become increasingly common both at home and abroad if climate change does indeed become a reality. Perhaps we must all now take such warnings more seriously because it appears that for whatever reason, we will need to be prepared for more unpredictable and extreme conditions. However, recognition of the problem is one thing but taking effective action is quite another.

This requires serious consideration at a governmental level not only in respect of flood prevention schemes to protect homes and businesses but also to gain a clearer understanding as to the impact extreme weather conditions are likely to have on our farming businesses. In this respect I would be interested to know whether any farmers in this area are seriously considering changing their farming practices or whether it will be business as usual in hope of kinder conditions as we move on in to 2013.



James Stephen MRICS FAAV
Partner
Rural Practice Chartered Surveyor, Wells

T: 01749 683381
E: james.stephen@carterjonas.co.uk

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