Will Mooney, Carter Jonas partner and head of commercial and professional services in the eastern region, feels the economic recovery is now a marathon not a sprint.
No athlete myself, I am, however, familiar with runners’ focus – which can border on obsession – on their negative split times. My familiarity extends no further than knowing that, in essence, this means finishing a run faster than you started while acknowledging that there might be a sag in the middle.
Look at coverage of and comment on the Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report and it could be concluded that the UK is in that sag. We definitely started this post-recession recovery slowly and we gathered pace in the past 18 months. While we know we’ll get there in the end, the doom and gloom first glance coverage of the prospect of deflation is enough to bring the Eeyore out in any of us whose natural disposition doesn’t tend toward the Tigger at the best of times.
But the prospect of a fall in UK interest rates to the point of a negative rate was laid out in conditional terms by Governor Carney. Interest rates might fall but could rise and banking sector activity would suggest a tendency to expect the latter. Last year, we bemoaned the prospect of the rise of interest rates and many people adjusted their borrowing and spending accordingly merely in anticipation of something that has yet to happen or might not happen for a good while yet.
Financial markets don’t deal in something called futures for nothing.
The current weakness of the price of commodities such as food, oil and energy - as cited by the Bank of England – shouldn’t really be mistaken for debilitating deflation. What goes up must come down and vice versa.
Thinking of the pound in our pockets, may be deflation is not so bad for commodities in the way it is for consumer durables of which the ‘big television’ is used as shorthand. We might put off buying the new big telly but we only bought our old big telly back in the days of easy credit when consumer durables weren’t treated as durable because they were so easily replaced.
But look where that got us?
Day to day consideration of the wider UK economy can be troublesome for those whose business, professional and personal interests are rooted in this region which is so dominated by the success of Cambridge. The latest Centre for Cities report once again confirms the economic pre-eminence of Cambridge among the top ranking cities of the UK. The city scores top marks in the ranking of cities across a range of measures including the lowest number of claimants for Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA), the highest skilled workers, the most number of patents granted per 100,000 population and the highest house price growth.
It has become normal for Cambridge to occupy these top slots in the Centre for Cities annual rankings but it’s important that this normality shouldn’t be mistaken for complacency. Those of us privileged to live, work and thrive here are acutely aware of the national and international context in which Cambridge succeeds.
There’s talk of economic normality on the horizon for the UK from some commentators but it can be a struggle to recall what that is – if we ever had it in the first place.
Before the next Bank of England inflation report, there will be a General Election and politics and democracy have a habit of interrupting economic programmes.But what do I know? It’s all Greek to me.
No athlete myself, I am, however, familiar with runners’ focus – which can border on obsession – on their negative split times. My familiarity extends no further than knowing that, in essence, this means finishing a run faster than you started while acknowledging that there might be a sag in the middle.
Look at coverage of and comment on the Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report and it could be concluded that the UK is in that sag. We definitely started this post-recession recovery slowly and we gathered pace in the past 18 months. While we know we’ll get there in the end, the doom and gloom first glance coverage of the prospect of deflation is enough to bring the Eeyore out in any of us whose natural disposition doesn’t tend toward the Tigger at the best of times.
But the prospect of a fall in UK interest rates to the point of a negative rate was laid out in conditional terms by Governor Carney. Interest rates might fall but could rise and banking sector activity would suggest a tendency to expect the latter. Last year, we bemoaned the prospect of the rise of interest rates and many people adjusted their borrowing and spending accordingly merely in anticipation of something that has yet to happen or might not happen for a good while yet.
Financial markets don’t deal in something called futures for nothing.
The current weakness of the price of commodities such as food, oil and energy - as cited by the Bank of England – shouldn’t really be mistaken for debilitating deflation. What goes up must come down and vice versa.
Thinking of the pound in our pockets, may be deflation is not so bad for commodities in the way it is for consumer durables of which the ‘big television’ is used as shorthand. We might put off buying the new big telly but we only bought our old big telly back in the days of easy credit when consumer durables weren’t treated as durable because they were so easily replaced.
But look where that got us?
Day to day consideration of the wider UK economy can be troublesome for those whose business, professional and personal interests are rooted in this region which is so dominated by the success of Cambridge. The latest Centre for Cities report once again confirms the economic pre-eminence of Cambridge among the top ranking cities of the UK. The city scores top marks in the ranking of cities across a range of measures including the lowest number of claimants for Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA), the highest skilled workers, the most number of patents granted per 100,000 population and the highest house price growth.
It has become normal for Cambridge to occupy these top slots in the Centre for Cities annual rankings but it’s important that this normality shouldn’t be mistaken for complacency. Those of us privileged to live, work and thrive here are acutely aware of the national and international context in which Cambridge succeeds.
There’s talk of economic normality on the horizon for the UK from some commentators but it can be a struggle to recall what that is – if we ever had it in the first place.
Before the next Bank of England inflation report, there will be a General Election and politics and democracy have a habit of interrupting economic programmes.But what do I know? It’s all Greek to me.
Will Mooney MRICS
Partner
Commercial, Cambridge
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