Upturn in milk prices

Dairy farmers flocked to the Dairy Show held at the Bath and West Showground on 5th October and I was struck by how positive many of the attendees were despite the very difficult year that many have experienced.

This generally positive attitude is perhaps a reflection of the recent upturn in milk prices and the hope that there will be further more significant increases to come. However the picture painted by farm accountants Old Mill appears to be rather more gloomy than the mood at the show would indicate.

Based on analysis of both Old Mill and the Farm Consultancy Group clients’ accounts this showed that on average dairy farmers lost 2.71p/litre in 2015/16 and are set to lose a worrying 2.81p/litre in 2016/17.  However these figures exclude non-milk income such as calf and cow sales and when these are included this produces small profits of 0.99p/litre and 1.08p/litre respectively.

Even so, these are not huge profits but although they are average figures and what always astounds me is the huge variation in performance between the top and bottom 25% of dairy businesses and this was once again borne out by Old Mill’s analysis.

Their figures showed that production costs among the lower quartile were a hefty 33.87p/litre, against 22.84p/litre in the top 25%. The bottom 25% also received 2.29p/litre less for their milk, at 25.01p/litre. This meant they made a loss of 5.65p/litre in 2015/16 – including non-milk income - compared to the top quartile’s average profit of 8.75p/litre.

Andrew Vickery, head of rural services at Old Mill, commented that, “It’s encouraging to see that, even in these tough times, the UK’s top dairy farmers are still managing to make a profit,”  but he went on to add, “all producers have looked hard at their cost base and found ways to reduce expenditure. However, while many have improved efficiencies, there is now very little meat left on the bones for any further cost reductions.”

As a result, following a prolonged period of low milk prices, cash flow is a significant issue for many dairy farmers and so now more than ever it is important to look forward and plan ahead.  In this context having a clear understanding of one’s cost of production is vital according to Phil Cooper from the Farm Consultancy Group.

Phil commented, “Improved dairy commodity values are now starting to filter through to farm-gate milk values, so producers need to make sure their business is in the best possible shape going forward, he adds. Don’t make drastic changes in times of uncertainty, but do plan ahead. Take professional advice and understand your costs of production, so that when you make a decision to change you’ll know it’s the right one.”

So, after a challenging year it appears most dairy farmers are keen to hang on to fight another day which demonstrates to me the resilience of this very important part of our farming community here in the south west.

James Stephen MRICS FAAV
Partner
Rural Practice Chartered Surveyor, Wells
T: 01749 683381
E: james.stephen@carterjonas.co.uk

Compensation for dairy farmers

The EU are proposing to compensate dairy farmers for cutting milk production in a bid to boost its price.

Indications are that payments of 12p/litre may be paid to farmers who commit to reducing milk production over a three-month period compared to the previous year. However funds will be limited and are likely to be paid on a first come first served basis, so farmers are advised to get prepared for the application period.

This could be a real opportunity for some farmers here because, as I reported a couple of weeks ago, milk production in the UK fell by around 10 per cent in July compared to a year ago. Some farmers will have already “pre-qualified” for this particular scheme without having to change anything.

Applications will be made to the Rural Payments Agency and will need to be accompanied by written proof of 2015 production levels which should be relatively easily achieved through the provision of last year’s milk cheques and estimated revised production levels.  

The total pot of money available across the whole of the EU will be £125m and I expect there will be four application periods until the money runs out. But with UK production having already fallen sharply, this money could be used very quickly and farmers are advised to apply at the first opportunity.

According to NFU chief dairy adviser Sian Davies: “When the application window is opens there will be a form made available on the RPA website which farmers can download ready to submit along with their milk cheques.”

It is believed the first application period will relate to reduced milk production from October 1 to December 31, 2016 and any potential applicants should consider what level of production they think they will have during that period in order to be ready to submit the form.

This EU initiative is clearly welcome but if the EU had not abolished its milk quota system in 2015, when world markets were falling in the face of rising milk supplies, perhaps the current level of overproduction in the EU would have been less severe and the latest dairy compensation scheme would be less necessary.

James Stephen MRICS FAAV
Partner
Rural Practice Chartered Surveyor, Wells
T: 01749 683381
E: james.stephen@carterjonas.co.uk

Milk price optimism as production shrinks

In the last two years we have seen milk prices slump to unsustainably low levels for many farmers because world markets became oversupplied.  However, it appears supply and demand are now coming back into balance as dairy farmers cut production.

Here in the UK dairy farmers have probably reacted to this problem more actively than in many other parts of the world.  This is exemplified by the latest Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board dairy milk production figures which show milk production in the first two weeks of July was down 10.2 per cent on last year.

In the same period the number of producers in England and Wales has fallen by 239 but that only represents a drop of 2.4 per cent.  Therefore, assuming these producers were representative of the average dairy farmer, this indicates that the cut in production has been across the whole industry, including many farmers who intend remaining in production. 

I suspect the reason is that many farmers have cut back on feeding expensive concentrates in favour of maximising production from fodder, a cheaper form of production which generally gives lower yields.

As a consequence supply has tightened and in the UK in particular this has also been exacerbated by the fall in value of sterling following Brexit which is making imports more expensive.  Accordingly milk prices appear to be on the rise as demonstrated by recent announcements from dairy companies such as Dairy Crest and First Milk.

This is most welcome news for dairy farmers, although even after the latest milk price rises many will still be struggling to make a living - especially because the fall of sterling is a double edged sword which is likely to force up many input costs such as fuel and fertiliser.

However, I am hopeful that the tide has now turned in the milk production cycle, which will mean dairy farmers can expect to see a period of growth in commodity prices. 

Of course that will probably also mean food price inflation in the shops which is something the government will not want to see just at a time of interest rate cuts and more quantitative easing. 

But the long term consequences of our exit from the EU is quite another story of potential opportunity and risk which has yet to unfold.

James Stephen MRICS FAAV
Partner
Rural Practice Chartered Surveyor, Wells
T: 01749 683381
E: james.stephen@carterjonas.co.uk