The Trump Effect

The election of Donald Trump to the post of US President might seem like a distant geo-political anomaly that will have little bearing on our East Anglian bubble. After all, Suffolk has proved not only remarkably resilient to Brexit but surprisingly buoyant – despite the uncertainty that reigns over our cousins in the capital, only 90 minutes down the road.

However, given our proximity to London, we should be pricking our ears to the opportunity that the knock-on effect of the new President Trump could engender for us.

As the world takes stock of this new political landscape, our counterparts in the capital are preparing to see a movement of affluent Americans from major cities across the US into Prime Central London.

The pound remains attractive to dollar based buyers in the wake of Brexit, who still see relative market stability in London and, as a result, view it as a place to invest their money in property.  Keen to shelter from any ensuing political and economic upset, a number of buyers registered with our London offices during the presidential campaigns, with a view to progressing their purchase pending a Trump victory. Now that has happened, follow up interest is already underway.

There is also much anticipation of a potential power shift between New York and London, with a new wave of professionals, originating from Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and even Tokyo, as well as investors from the Middle East, now looking to do business in alternative locations to the US. London is, inevitably, a primary contender for such activity, especially given the stability that our Prime Minister, Theresa May, provides, as well as the financial reassurance that Mark Carney brings, following confirmation that he will remain in role as governor of the Bank of England until 2019.

Of course it’s not just international buyers who we expect to see searching for refuge in London; there is also a population of ex-pats residing in the US, who have fluctuated for some time over their decision to return to the UK. For many, the Trump victory has forced their hand, with the prospect of living under his leadership simply too unpalatable.

This influx of jetsetters and ex-pats is set to inject some much needed liquidity into the London market, empowering homeowners who have otherwise been too paralysed by uncertainty to move.

So how does this impact on our local market? This will hopefully free the London buyers up to start buying in the country again. With its comparative affordability combined with its excellent commutability, Suffolk is the destination of choice for many. This should help stimulate the top end of the market again as the £1m plus market has struggled since 2014 when the stamp duty thresholds were so significantly changed. And if our government is wise enough to announce a reduction in SDLT in the Autumn Statement, we could have quite a bit to smile about.

Caroline Edwards
Partner
Residential Sales, Long Melford
T: 01787 888622
E: caroline.edwards@carterjonas.co.uk

The beauty of the binary

Leave or remain?  In or out?  Left or right?  Right or wrong?  Good or bad?  Sooner or later?  Clinton or Trump?  The complexities of modern life require more consideration than a binary choice can ever do justice to. Yet so often we allow ourselves to be seduced into making a choice of ’either/or’ when presented with one.After all, there is a 50:50 chance of getting right or wrong and many yearn for a balanced approach.

July sees the Democratic and Republican national conventions where the presumed candidacies of Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump will be endorsed, respectively, by each party’s delegates. The nature of the final stage of the race for the White House is usually a binary choice.

There is nothing to stop an additional party candidate but, historically, any third party runners have acted as mere spoilers. Yet there is a considered view that 2016’s ‘spoiler candidates’ from, perhaps, the Libertarian Party and the Green Party could be influential in attracting votes away from the two main protagonists and affect the outcome of the November poll.

It is also assumed that foreign policy wise, the two likely candidates will pursue quite distinct approaches upon occupying the Oval Office.  Put lazily, one will pull up the drawbridge -  if not build a wall - to shore-up a protectionist stance and the other will be interventionist in a more obvious way than the 44th president has been.

Again, it seems like a choice between one way or another but the duties incumbent of the role of Mr or Madam President as the head of state, the head of government and commander-in-chief of the armed forces make for a more complex approach to policy making, thankfully.

What foreign policy commentators do seem to agree on is that the 45th President of the United States of America needs to decide whether or not he or she wants to see the USA continue in its role as the world’s ‘policeman’ – a role occupied after 1945.

Back then there did seem to be a binary choice between two powerful, opposing forces: communism and anti-communism.   But since the demise of the Soviet empire, things have, even on the surface, become more complex and there are certainly more than two forces in play when it comes to powerful nations with global ambitions.

The same commentators feel that if the USA is to retire from its policeman role then it needs to make it plain to the rest of the world sooner rather than later.  Some policy experts feel it is now time for the USA to become part of a new constabulary force.  Either that or it is going to have to carve out its new post-retirement identity and make plain its attitude to any new recruits who are rising up the ranks.

In terms of military, diplomatic and commercial clout the USA’s pre-eminence endures.  Whoever is inaugurated next January will have to make more than two choices about what to do with all that power, that’s for sure. It’s not a case of use it or lose it because it’s always likey going to have it.

High up on the new president’s ‘to do’ list will surely be what to do with its transatlantic cousins who live in an increasingly fractious if not fractured Europe.

Who would have thought that just having two options would make things so complicated?  A binary choice in some affairs is just too, too simplistic.

Will Mooney MRICS
Partner
Commercial, Cambridge