Showing posts with label hampshire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hampshire. Show all posts

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Investing in fundamentals

This week’s housing market reports and predictions are as contradictory as they are arbitrary, which is de riguer in an uncertain world.

In times of uncertainty, investments in fundamentals are seen as a safer haven. Concerns over European leaders being able to tame the sovereign-debt crisis have further boosted demand for gold as a safe haven investment. Spot gold prices reached $1,804.10 an ounce, a seven-week high, in yesterday's trading in New York.
Farmland prices have almost doubled in the past five years and are somewhere around 5% higher than a year ago. Over the past 10 years agricultural land has grown 204%; which is twice the increase shown in London property prices and notably above the 6% growth experienced by the FTSE 100 during the decade. Even best English shotguns have been targeted by investors with record prices being paid and valuations rising around 3-5% a year.

Residential property, however, which is as fundamental an investment as most of us own, is, it appears not the darling of the press it once was. It is cheaper to buy than to rent. Yet, we seem to have become immune to the charms of historically low mortgage rates and the opportunities as differentials gaps narrow.

Rising commodity and fuel prices have exerted growing pressures on household incomes. But there are waiting lists across some of the quality marques for their latest range of smaller SUVs. A client tells me track side, bookmakers have reported as much as a 20% increase in takings, certainly Ladbrokes’ recent quarterly results showed a 2.5% increase over the same period last year.

The property market in Hampshire is frustrated. We have any number of excellent buyers but a steady flow of fresh properties coming to the market is being hampered by media sentiment and a feeling that perhaps it is better to wait until spring. All of this is quite understandable but our mailing lists are full of purchasers who have see the light of buying in this climate.

November, whilst not a classic time to launch a sale, offers the backdrop of an autumnal landscape and the focus of Christmas. Yet the mild weather and turning shades has given us some wonderful days. Both rivers and the countryside teem with life and entomological hatches are still a valuable food source. Game feeders provide further food for over wintering song birds and skeins of geese can be heard at dusk as they return to the safety of the river from a day’s grazing. The clocks changing gives a welcome sunrise to us early dog walkers and it is not cold enough yet for a winter coat. But as surely as night follows day, winter is close by. If the weather patterns of the past few years are repeated, we may have to wait a long time until spring. Whilst autumn can feel like a prelude to the main event , we must be careful what we wish for. Perhaps the thing that is most missed by those who leave our island for warmer climes, are the seasons. This year, mother nature has excelled herself with the loveliest autumn display. Jack frost, surely cannot be far away.

Matthew Hallett
Partner

Head of Residential Sales, Winchester

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

The property market and other paradoxes…

September was a record month, both for temperatures and our Winchester business. Hampshire harvests were safely gathered in and although rivers were low, there were some lovely days sport to be had with good grilse runs and some large late season brownies.

October has been marked by England’s departure from the Rugby World Cup and some choice phrases from the Governor of the Bank of England; “It is unfamiliar – that’s because this is the most serious financial crisis we’ve seen, at least since the 1930s, if not ever. And we’re having to deal with very unusual circumstances but react calmly to this and to do the right thing.” Mervyn King’s words, whilst chilling are also apt for the Hampshire property market, where we are contending with very unusual circumstances indeed. The dearth of prime properties for sale is more extreme than usual, yet buyers are less willing to compromise. Whilst there are plenty of buyers looking for good country houses, there is currently less urgency to purchase and the negotiations are more complex than usual. When markets are faring well, buyers are more prepared to compromise, so if 7/10 of their boxes are ticked, they are more than likely to proceed. Currently, however, buyers do not want to consider any risk whilst the markets are uncertain and would much prefer for all ten boxes to be ticked, which can sometimes prove to be an unachievable aspiration. Buyers are reluctant to bid, in effect, against themselves and in many cases, would prefer to wait until there is competition to confirm the level of market value. All of this slows the process whilst the battle of wills is played out.

The oxymoron of a shortage of properties and buyers unwilling to compromise is alien to Hampshire and in stark contrast to conditions in London. The prime London market, which is dominated by international buyers, is moving much more quickly; there is a shortage of property coming onto the market so buyers know that they have to act quickly in order to compete. A mild autumn and a lively London market are the usual indicators of a busy October in Hampshire but sellers of prime property are in short supply. Negative market comment in the media appears to have become a self fulfilling prophesy; clients, like early season partridge are, it seems, understandably easily spooked. Perhaps the most frustrating paradox is the lack of property creates a lack of property; potential vendors are unwilling to enter the upheaval of a sale without a reasonable chance of a suitable alternative home to trade up or down to, thus there is a logjam.

I have just returned from my yearly pilgrimage to Scotland, in pursuit of the silver tourist; Salmo salar and whilst a wonderful week was had, as always, we were plagued by river water levels. Salmon get trapped in pools, waiting for a spate large enough to return upstream to their redds; the Hampshire market has similarities with buyers and sellers in a holding pattern, waiting for the flow of activity to return.

I am regularly updating buyers and their agents and hope that the current impasse in the country market can be resolved before the city Christmas bonuses are announced.

Matthew Hallett
Partner

Head of Residential Sales, Winchester