Showing posts with label Scottish Independence referendum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scottish Independence referendum. Show all posts

Friday, 3 October 2014

Breaking up is hard to do

While it’s not Scots away, Will Mooney, Carter Jonas partner and head of its commercial agency and professional services in the eastern region, wonders what the genie might get up to if it refuses to go back in its bottle.

Being Northern Irish, I’m no stranger to the damaging effects of political division and and the negative economic impact schism can have on successive generations. I’d suggest that those of us with Celtic origins followed Scotland’s Independence Referendum with a keener eye than our Anglo-Saxon peers – at least until that September weekend when that poll mobilised Westminster’s biggest guns.

The financial markets reacted in the way they always do to uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, how could a ‘little local difficulty’ in the United Kingdom influence global capital and currency markets when there is so much else going on on the international stage?

Cue a number of high profile businesses and corporate interests who expressed their concern or hinted what the consequences might be if expected to do business with, or in, a post-independent Caledonia.

Pro-independence business commentators countered by making the distinction between uncertainty and risk. Do people become entrepreneurs because they take risks or do you have to be a risk taker, first, in order to become an entreprenuer? What has to be certain before a risk becomes designated as a calculated risk and, thereby, worth taking?

In these weeks following the referendum result, there is the sense that many of the old certainties of The Union have gone or are going or are changing or are being challenged.

Not being sophisticated in the ways of psephology, I can’t say whether a 10 per cent differential in favour of remaining part of the United Kingdom is a close run thing or not. But there’s no denying that the referendum debate, has opened-up another layer of debate about a more federated British Isles.

It’s to be hoped that this opening will not become a fissure because, apart from anything else, that’s not our style of doing things in any part of Britain.

The turbo-charged timescale suggested for further devolutionary powers for Scotland - more Devo-medium than Devo-max, as it turns out - promised by the three mainstream party leaders pre-referendum has raised some eyebrows, not least of all those of the Whitehall mandarins who will be charged in getting legislation through in time for Burn’s Night on 25 January, or not.


Will Mooney MRICS
Partner

Commercial, Cambridge

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Goodbye holiday, hello Autumn!

As much as we all love and need our holidays it is always a relief for estate agents when the second week of September arrives and our buyers are back home, refreshed and, generally, raring to go – giving us a good two months to make it all happen before Christmas.

This year, however, we will be even more delighted when the outcome of this week’s momentous Scottish Independence Referendum is finally revealed. No market likes uncertainty and it has been interesting to see the impact of Scotland’s potential break-away from the UK on the property market.

Whatever the outcome is, the fact we will have a result will help in a way that endless speculation hasn’t.

This has been specifically noticeable amongst London buyers. With many of our London buyers working in the City, the financial markets’ trepidation has rippled out into ours. This, therefore, has contributed to a slackening in demand for larger family houses in the £1,000,000 plus price bracket.

With any luck, Scotland will decide to stay in the fold and we can all raise a whisky or two to a revival of confidence.

On the other hand, a sector of the market which has shown tartan-resistant strength is the retirement bracket. The demand for good village houses within walking distance of amenities, together with spacious reception rooms, a reasonable sized garden and off road parking/garaging is especially strong.

As 2014 took off with the wind fully in its sails, we confidently expected the year to continue as such. Mark Carney’s warning of impending interest rate rises certainly contributed to deflating the London market ‘bubble’. However, frustratingly, this took the puff out of the country bubble which had only just started to inflate and was a long, long way off bursting.

However, the consensus is that when the base rate does rise, it will be in incremental stages. Such baby-steps will not only be easier for householders to plan-for and manage but are also unlikely to spook the financial and residential property markets.

Looking at this positively, a gentle pulling-in of the reins should ensure a more contained, steady and long lasting growth.


Caroline Edwards
Partner
Residential Sales, Long Melford

T: 01787 888622
E: caroline.edwards@carterjonas.co.uk

Tuesday, 4 March 2014

"Events, dear boy, events."

Asked when he was Prime Minister what he most feared, Harold Macmillan responded with the now-famous quote: “Events, dear boy, events.”

The circumstances in which, about what and to whom ‘Super Mac’ was referring have never been established once and for all as the Profumo Affair (there’s one for the under 50s to google) but it’s a sentiment with which we can all sympathise.

No matter how much or to what level of detail we undertake research and prepare for or forward plan – even for an anticipated crisis scenario - events have a nasty habit of taking over.

Just ask the current Prime Minister. For all the expert advice from policy wonks and spin doctors in order to control the political messaging and the news agenda to the nth degree – it rained. And it rained. And it rained again. And it’s still raining.

Eighteen months out from David Cameron’s first General Election in-residence, the rain began. From where we are now, coming towards the end of the winter, an administration whose first term in office looked all set to be defined by austerity and, latterly, recovery, risks being overtaken and characterised – even caricatured – by a lack of both sandbags and ministers and state officials in wellington boots in the early days of the flood event.

Events are a great leveller for those in public life. Tony Blair’s premiership became characterised by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and was defined by the terrible milestones of the 9/11 and 7/7. Not at all what New Labour had in mind on assuming power in May 1997 - no amount of political planning and message control freakery could have anticipated those terrorist events or their lasting impact.

The Bank of England policy, ‘Forward Guidance’ – whose feel-better factor I welcomed in these pages at the end of last summer – has also succumbed to events.

As the unemployment rate in January and early February looked like it was edging forward to that magic 7 per cent figure (as it turned out, it’s currently 7.2 per cent) which would mean that, under Forward Guidance, the Bank would have to take a view on increasing interest rates, Governor Carney announced that other variables were part of the interest rate policy too.

To be fair, Mark Carney was at pains to point out last August that 7 per cent was not a target at which point interest rates would definitely rise.

The direction of travel of interest rates is far easier to anticipate and prepare for a change of course than the unpredictable precipitations of Atlantic storms and the direction of the pesky Gulf Stream in winter 2013/14.

Yet not all big events are surprises. Under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act of 2011, for the first time we’ve known exactly when the next General Election will be – 07 May 2015 – and plans will have been well underway for at least four years by the time it comes round.

This year sees another big constitutional event - some might argue the biggest since 1801 – the Scottish Independence referendum.

If, in line with a quote attributed to the US’s longest serving First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt, ‘Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people’, the debate about Scotland’s independence and the accompanying political and cultural stushie has got the lot.

September 18 is bound to rain on someone’s parade.


Will Mooney MRICS
Partner

Commercial, Cambridge