Showing posts with label scotland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scotland. Show all posts

Friday, 3 October 2014

Breaking up is hard to do

While it’s not Scots away, Will Mooney, Carter Jonas partner and head of its commercial agency and professional services in the eastern region, wonders what the genie might get up to if it refuses to go back in its bottle.

Being Northern Irish, I’m no stranger to the damaging effects of political division and and the negative economic impact schism can have on successive generations. I’d suggest that those of us with Celtic origins followed Scotland’s Independence Referendum with a keener eye than our Anglo-Saxon peers – at least until that September weekend when that poll mobilised Westminster’s biggest guns.

The financial markets reacted in the way they always do to uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, how could a ‘little local difficulty’ in the United Kingdom influence global capital and currency markets when there is so much else going on on the international stage?

Cue a number of high profile businesses and corporate interests who expressed their concern or hinted what the consequences might be if expected to do business with, or in, a post-independent Caledonia.

Pro-independence business commentators countered by making the distinction between uncertainty and risk. Do people become entrepreneurs because they take risks or do you have to be a risk taker, first, in order to become an entreprenuer? What has to be certain before a risk becomes designated as a calculated risk and, thereby, worth taking?

In these weeks following the referendum result, there is the sense that many of the old certainties of The Union have gone or are going or are changing or are being challenged.

Not being sophisticated in the ways of psephology, I can’t say whether a 10 per cent differential in favour of remaining part of the United Kingdom is a close run thing or not. But there’s no denying that the referendum debate, has opened-up another layer of debate about a more federated British Isles.

It’s to be hoped that this opening will not become a fissure because, apart from anything else, that’s not our style of doing things in any part of Britain.

The turbo-charged timescale suggested for further devolutionary powers for Scotland - more Devo-medium than Devo-max, as it turns out - promised by the three mainstream party leaders pre-referendum has raised some eyebrows, not least of all those of the Whitehall mandarins who will be charged in getting legislation through in time for Burn’s Night on 25 January, or not.


Will Mooney MRICS
Partner

Commercial, Cambridge

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Goodbye holiday, hello Autumn!

As much as we all love and need our holidays it is always a relief for estate agents when the second week of September arrives and our buyers are back home, refreshed and, generally, raring to go – giving us a good two months to make it all happen before Christmas.

This year, however, we will be even more delighted when the outcome of this week’s momentous Scottish Independence Referendum is finally revealed. No market likes uncertainty and it has been interesting to see the impact of Scotland’s potential break-away from the UK on the property market.

Whatever the outcome is, the fact we will have a result will help in a way that endless speculation hasn’t.

This has been specifically noticeable amongst London buyers. With many of our London buyers working in the City, the financial markets’ trepidation has rippled out into ours. This, therefore, has contributed to a slackening in demand for larger family houses in the £1,000,000 plus price bracket.

With any luck, Scotland will decide to stay in the fold and we can all raise a whisky or two to a revival of confidence.

On the other hand, a sector of the market which has shown tartan-resistant strength is the retirement bracket. The demand for good village houses within walking distance of amenities, together with spacious reception rooms, a reasonable sized garden and off road parking/garaging is especially strong.

As 2014 took off with the wind fully in its sails, we confidently expected the year to continue as such. Mark Carney’s warning of impending interest rate rises certainly contributed to deflating the London market ‘bubble’. However, frustratingly, this took the puff out of the country bubble which had only just started to inflate and was a long, long way off bursting.

However, the consensus is that when the base rate does rise, it will be in incremental stages. Such baby-steps will not only be easier for householders to plan-for and manage but are also unlikely to spook the financial and residential property markets.

Looking at this positively, a gentle pulling-in of the reins should ensure a more contained, steady and long lasting growth.


Caroline Edwards
Partner
Residential Sales, Long Melford

T: 01787 888622
E: caroline.edwards@carterjonas.co.uk